It looks like we're going to get music downloads that consumers can use freely on any device, sold through a wide range of online services. This is great news for music lovers.

Steve Jobs tells us that video is different from music because DRM is more widely used on video. I think that there are already strong parallels between video and music.

I expect that DRM-free online video content will follow in a few years, led by the TV industry.

On Monday EMI announced that it would begin selling digital music tracks that do not have embedded Digital Rights Management code (DRM) and are also higher quality. For the first time this means that a track from a major record label that is purchased on Apple's iTunes music store can be used with a Microsoft player, as well as an iPod. It will also open up the market for many small websites, who cannot afford a DRM system, to sell digital tracks from a major label.

Apple have generally been credited with engineering this move, because their player and music retail businesses are now big enough to benefit from an open market, and because European regulators have created pressure.

There is now general consensus that the old model, of restricting which devices and software you can play you music on, has not worked. At the EMI press conference Steve Jobs predicted that half of the music sold within iTunes by the end of the year will be DRM-free. Presumably this means that another major label will sign up soon, and that they expect the others will follow in due course.

So far, it's a pretty clear picture. It makes me very happy. As a music lover and early adopter of new technology, I can see myself buying much more music online. I look forward to finding and buying it from a rich body of recommendation and discovery services, not just those that can afford to maintain a DRM system.

So, what about video? During the press conference someone asked Jobs if he saw a parallel between music and video. He said:

"Video is pretty different than music right now because the video industry does not distribute 90 percent of their content DRM free; never has, and so I think they are in a pretty different situation and so I wouldn't hold the two in parallel at all."

Various analysts, including Forrester, have pointed out that video DRM is easily bypassed by determined consumers, and that Apple have a weaker position in video retail. It is also important to remember that it is harder for most people to view downloaded video. There's still no route between the broadband connection and the TV in most households. The conditions for video are tough at present, but not necessarily for ever.

So where would a push for DRM-free video start? My bet is on the TV industry.

In the U.S. video content is distributed either via DVD or digital pay TV systems. So Jobs is strictly correct. The vast majority of content has some kind of DRM in the U.S.

In Europe the situation with TV is different. Most households receive their TV DRM-free (as analog or increasingly digital terrestrial broadcasts, or via analog cable). The content on offer includes all the most popular local shows, and current seasons of major U.S. shows.

It seems Jobs is missing something in the U.S. too. TiVo works with pretty much any cable or satellite system. Once you have recorded a show you can legally keep it forever, and even transfer it between devices or to a DVD. DRM was involved (or Conditional Access in Pay TV terminology), but it did not create barriers to consumer using the content freely.

TiVo equivalents are becoming increasingly popular in Europe too. Enders reckons they'll be in a third of U.K. homes by 2010.

So, consumers can legally record TV shows, and watch them on any device at any time, as long as they keep them for personal use. Meanwhile, the same content is provided online with numerous restrictions on how it is used.

To me the parallel between video and music is pretty clear. Online video content will end up DRM-free in a few years. Well, at least anything that has been shown on TV. It's just not obvious yet how we will get there.